Holyrood
Senedd
19/09/25 UK Projection: Labour's Political Misfortunes Catch Up to Them
19 Sep 2025 • Labour are down to 100 seats and Reform are forecast to win a majority of 28 as the public's verdict of the past fortnight of political turmoil is realised.
Have the Lib Dems Reached Their Ceiling?
16 Sep 2025 • Given widespread dissatisfaction for the political duopoly, how come the Ed Davey's party isn't doing better?
12/09/25 UK Projection: Leadership Contests, Tax Affairs, Conferences and Reshuffles
12 Sep 2025 • This past week of polling returns the public's verdict of the stories surrounding Rayner's resignation, Reform's conference and the Greens' leadership contest.
04/09/25 UK Projection: Reform Forecast to Scrape a Majority
04 Sep 2025 • Reform are projected to win a majority as Labour's forecast is once again &Elections' worst ever for them.
01/09/25 Holyrood Projection: SNP to Retain Most Seats Despite Vote Collapsing
01 Sep 2025 • &Elections' inaugural projection of next year's Scottish Parliament election has the SNP storming ahead despite their vote share collapsing.
28/08/25 UK Projection: Labour's Worst Week Ever
28 Aug 2025 • An election held today would yield fewer seats for Labour than the Tories won last year, whilst Reform are within touching distance of a majority again.
22/08/25 Senedd Projection: Plaid & Reform Vying for the Most Seats
22 Aug 2025 • &Elections first projection for next year's Senedd election has Plaid Cymru and Reform neck-and-neck, ending Labour's stronghold on the legislature.
21/08/25 UK Projection: Marginal Shifts to Labour and the Tories' Chagrin
21 Aug 2025 • Labour and the Tories decline on last week, with Reform inching closer to a majority and other parties' grounds steadying.
14/08/25 UK Projection: Reform's Lead Marginally Softens
14 Aug 2025 • Reform are no longer forecast to win a majority and the Tories are fourth again.
&Elections: Methodological Updates to Seat Tabulations
14 Aug 2025 • &Elections will now be combining traditional binary and more sophisticated probabilistic modelling to produce a more realistic projected seat total for each party.
&Elections: Updates Since the 2024 Election
13 Aug 2025 • Since 2024, various improvements have been made to the methodology &Elections uses to project elections, coinciding with new features alongside the projection model.
Could Corbyn Have Won It for Labour?
11 Aug 2025 • After the election, it was accepted that Starmer's disciplined leadership yielded a victory that would have been impossible if Corbyn were still leader, but how true is this?
08/08/25 UK Projection: Reform and Independents Crawl Forward
08 Aug 2025 • Not much has changed in polling this past week, but Reform and independents are set to make modest gains and Labour's performance is set to be worse than the Tories in the last election.
The Tories Need to Deradicalize
07 Aug 2025 • The Conservatives are in an existential crisis and embracing Reform's rhetoric is so far getting them nowhere. What should they do?
Will Plaid Win Cymru?
05 Aug 2025 • With all the talk of Reform potentially becoming the largest party in Wales, it's worth recognising the growth of the party chasing Labour's heels for the left-of-centre vote.
The SNP's Unremarkable Comeback
04 Aug 2025 • The SNP were decimated to 9 seats in 2024, but now most forecasters are projecting that a general election today would yield upwards of 40 seats for them. What happened?
29/07/25 UK Projection: Reform Headed for an Outright Majority
29 Jul 2025 • Update on &Elections' live general election projection. Reform are headed for an outright majority for the first time as Labour and the Tories collapse further.
22/07/25 UK Projection: Independents Bouncing Back Better
22 Jul 2025 • Update on &Elections' live general election projection. Lib Dems & independents are up slightly; Tories are down to fifth again.
A New Left Party: Could It Succeed?
20 Jul 2025 • With it being over a fortnight since Sultana and Corbyn announced that they would start a new party, what successes or failures could it be destined for?
Young Men Aren't Reformers
20 Jul 2025 • With 16 and 17-year-olds being set to be enfranchised by the next election, where do young people really stand?
&Elections: The Methodology
19 Jul 2025 • A summary of the methodology of &Elections' live Westminster projection.
Hi, I'm Nicholas. I started making what has eventually become &Elections in January 2024, when I started to collate MRP polling. In the 2024 election, my final call projection was one of the most accurate in the industry, with my model having forecast over 87% of constituencies correctly*. Since then, I've refined my model to better its accuracy, and have worked tirelessly on several new exciting features, including this site, which I independently created and published in June 2025. You can read more about my methodology here.
Now, being just one 19-year-old working to create some of the most detailed analysis and projections for UK elections anywhere on the internet takes up a lot of effort, especially wihout any external financial backing. Anything that you can do to help contribute to the site is deeply appreciated! Also, especially if you can't contribute, please could you consider following &Elections on social media sites to stay up-to-date with polling and projection updates!
*552 of the 631 constituencies projected (GB, excluding Chorley)